30 September 2025, Volume 36 Issue 3

    

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  Contents of Volume 36 Issue 3

  Vol. 36  No. 3

  Assistant Editors

  Advances in Polar Science. 2025, 36(3): 1-1.

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Editorial Note
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  Advances in Polar Science: opening a new chapter in polar research

  Lei Ruibo, Yeadong Kim

  Advances in Polar Science. 2025, 36(3): 22.

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Articles
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  Archaeology of whaling in the Arctic prehistory

  QU Feng

  Advances in Polar Science. 2025, 36(3): 171-178. https://doi.org/10.12429/j.advps.2025.0020

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  This paper explores the archaeology of whaling in Arctic prehistory, focusing on the emergence and development of whaling as a central component of cultural ecology among prehistoric Inuit and related societies. Drawing on archaeological evidence from key sites across Alaska, the Chukchi Peninsula, and the Bering Strait region, the study examines how whaling technologies and practices evolved alongside climatic fluctuations, ecological shifts, and social transformations. Integrating ethnographic insights and paleoclimatic data, the study argues that Inuit engagement with whales was not only a subsistence strategy but a long-term, historically contingent relationship that shaped and was shaped by broader cultural systems.

  
  
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  Organic matter burial and deposition conditions in the northern part of Chukchi Shelf, Arctic Ocean, since the Little Ice Age

  YU Xiaoguo, YE Liming, ZHANG Weiyan, WANG Rong, BIAN Yeping, JIN Xiaobing, YAO Xuying & QIAN Jingxin

  Advances in Polar Science. 2025, 36(3): 179-190. https://doi.org/10.12429/j.advps.2025.0005

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  Understanding the sediment record during the Little Ice Age (LIA) can help elucidate natural sea ice fluctuation and carbon cycle variability. This study analyzed the grain size composition (including ice-rafted debris), total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) content, and stable isotopic composition (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) of the sediment record (approximately 490 a) of core ARC7-R11 in the northern part of the Chukchi Shelf. The sediment grains comprise mostly (>90%) silt and clay components. The grain size composition suggests generally low-energy hydrodynamic conditions across the region, yet reveals a trend of enhancement in hydrodynamics from the bottom to top layers of the sediment core, particularly after the 1940s. It also shows occurrences of seasonal sea ice and retreat of the perennial sea ice margin during warmer periods of the LIA and the post-LIA period. The organic matter content is high throughout the core, with heavier δ¹³C values and moderate TOC/TN ratios indicating primarily marine origin; the terrestrial input is <37.5% according to the endmember model. The variation trend of marine-derived organic carbon (OC) content is similar to that of summer temperature anomalies; while variation trend of terrestrially derived OC shows significant correlation with that of the number of ice-free days in the southern shelf region, except for the period from approximately 1700s to the 1870s. During the LIA, the TOC content fluctuated and decreased, and the relative contribution of terrestrial OC was higher than during the modern warm period. The amount of OC buried in the sediment has increased with climate warming, especially after the 1940s, reflecting the enhanced ability of sediment to sequester carbon during warmer periods.
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  Pendulum routes in the Northeast Passage: design and economic analysis

  HU Maixiu & CHEN Yingying

  Advances in Polar Science. 2025, 36(3): 191-202. https://doi.org/10.12429/j.advps.2025.0008

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  Global warming has made the regular operation of Arctic routes possible. This study selects hub ports based on infrastructure conditions and sea ice status, and then designs two pendulum route solutions for the Northeast Passage according to the distance between hub ports and ice-covered areas. We employ an evaluation framework combining annual profit metrics with discounted net present value (NPV) analysis, conducting probabilistic economic assessments through Monte Carlo simulations (20,000 iterations). Key findings indicate that (1) both solutions demonstrate >90% probability of economic viability and (2) Solution I′, with hub ports closer to ice-covered areas than those in Solution II, yields 5.02% higher mean annual profit and 4.69% greater NPV. The results indicate that pendulum routes in the Northeast Passage can achieve economic benefits by enabling year-round regular operations. Moreover, shorter shipping distances between hub ports and ice-covered areas enhance economic viability.
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  Evaluating the impact of the BBNJ Agreement on regulatory gaps in a competent IFB: a case study of MGRs management in the Antarctic Treaty Area

  PAN Min

  Advances in Polar Science. 2025, 36(3): 203-212. https://doi.org/10.12429/j.advps.2025.0010

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  On 19 June 2023, the Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement) was adopted. The BBNJ Agreement aims to regulate the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction, including the high seas and the international seabed area. The BBNJ Agreement enters into an already crowded institutional landscape as a global authority with broad objectives, inevitably interacting with existing institutions, frameworks, and bodies (IFBs). Existing research has primarily focused on two areas: the first examines the impact of the institutions established by the BBNJ Agreement on existing marine governance IFBs; the second explores its influence on issues currently lacking institutional arrangements. However, comparatively little attention has been given to the Agreement’s potential impact on governance gaps within established systems. This paper takes the case of marine genetic resource (MGRs) management in the Antarctic Treaty Area to explore how the BBNJ Agreement may address regulatory gaps in a competent governance framework. Due to shortcomings in addressing core issues, concerning the legal status of MGRs access regulations, benefit-sharing mechanisms, and disclosure of origin, the Agreement is unlikely to have a significant impact on the governance of MGRs in the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) in the short term. On the other hand, the ATS, as an effective governance framework for the Antarctic Treaty Area, has mature regulations and practical experience in Antarctic governance. Over the years, the ATS has focused on regulating bioprospecting activities as scientific research ones and strict environmental impact assessment procedures. However, there has not been an effective consensus on the regulation of commercial biological prospecting. This paper further explores the coordination issue between the BBNJ Agreement and the ATS, suggesting that in the future, MGRs governance in the Antarctic Treaty Area may evolve into a polycentric governance system.
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  Design of China’s ice-class fleet scale and economic viability assessment under normalized operation of the Northeast Passage

  HOU Jiaojiao & HU Maixiu

  Advances in Polar Science. 2025, 36(3): 213-228. https://doi.org/10.12429/j.advps.2025.0007

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  Global warming has led to a gradual extension of the navigable window for the Arctic Route, providing a realistic possibility for the normalized commercial operation of the Northeast Passage (NEP). Based on the changes in the navigable window of the NEP, Russia’s proposed nuclear-powered icebreaker construction scheme, and China’s potential development of a moderately sized ice-class fleet, this study establishes three scenarios for the commercial operation of the NEP. These scenarios include: (a) normalized summer operational scenario (from July to October each year), (b) normalized summer- autumn operational scenario (from June to January of the following year), and (c) normalized year-round operational scenario (12 months per year). The cargo transportation potential of the NEP under three normalized operational scenarios was predicted based on the grey prediction model. On this basis, construction scale plans for China’s ice-class fleet to meet cargo transportation demands under the three normalized operational scenarios were designed. The economic benefits of different plans were evaluated using a profit-maximization linear programming model. The research results show the following: (1) The cargo transportation potential of the NEP demonstrates a rapid growth trend in the future, with annual throughput under year-round normalized operations expected to exceed 100 million tonnes and reach 297 million tonnes. (2) Under different normalized operational scenarios, the fleet scale and vessel type composition vary. Under the normalized summer operational scenario, the optimal scale for China’s ice-class fleet is 20 vessels, consisting solely of ships classed as PC7 by the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS). Under the normalized summer-autumn operational scenario, the optimal fleet scale is 31 vessels, including 30 IACS PC7 ships and 1 IACS PC3 ship. Under the normalized year-round operational scenario, the optimal fleet scale is 45 vessels, composed of 30 IACS PC7 ships, 8 IACS PC3 ships, and 7 IACS PC2 ships. (3) Among the three normalized operational scenarios, the normalized year-round operational scenario yields the best economic benefits for the fleet scale, while the normalized summer operational scenario yields the lowest economic benefits.
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  Estimating winter turbulent heat fluxes over the North Water Polynya and surrounding sea ice using ERA5 and ASRv2 reanalysis data (2005–2016)

  REN Haiyi, Mohammed SHOKR, HUI Fengming, HE Guangjun, FU Han, LIU Binxiao & CHENG Xiao

  Advances in Polar Science. 2025, 36(3): 229-246. https://doi.org/10.12429/j.advps.2025.0019

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  The North Water Polynya (NOW) is one of the largest and most productive polynyas in the Arctic. Compared to the surrounding sea ice, the combination of high winds and cold air, together with the thin ice or open water surface of the NOW, produces large turbulent heat fluxes (THFs). The accurate estimation of these parameters requires high-resolution atmospheric data, which can be provided by the reanalysis products from different sources. In this study, we calculated the winter latent heat flux (LHF) and sensible heat flux (SHF) over the NOW and its surrounding sea ice area from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 using high-resolution (15 km) Arctic System Reanalysis version 2 (ASRv2) data and low-resolution (30 km) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 data. Results show that the LHF/SHF over the surrounding sea ice is about 82%/88% lower than over the NOW, as estimated using either dataset. Furthermore, within each area, the difference in the THFs estimated from the two datasets is small. The spatial distribution of the LHF/SHF estimated from both data sources is similar to that of sea ice concentration. The average LHF/SHF in the polynya obtained using ASRv2 data is only 5%/7% higher than that from the values obtained using ERA5 data. This is because the wind speed and air temperature from the ASRv2 data are higher than those of ERA5, and their effects on the THFs can cancel each other out. Furthermore, the estimated THFs do not necessarily improve with the refined resolution of ASRv2.
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  Navigability of Arctic sea routes in the 21st century based on CMIP6

  LI Mengrui, HU Shuhan, GAO Qianhui, DING Ruichang, ZHAO Chuanhu & HUANG Fei

  Advances in Polar Science. 2025, 36(3): 246-264. https://doi.org/10.12429/j.advps.2025.0025

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  Under ongoing global warming, reliable projections of Arctic sea-ice conditions and future navigability are of strategic significance. Using a combination of observational and physical constraints, we systematically evaluated the performance of 48 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating Arctic sea ice and selected 12 skillful models for detailed analysis. Navigability of the Northeast Passage (NEP), Northwest Passage (NWP), and Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) during 2015–2100 was assessed under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Results indicate that for open water vessels under the SSP2-4.5, TSR is not projected to become navigable until 2029. In contrast, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, both NWP and NEP are expected to support year-round navigation by the late 21st century, while TSR is not anticipated to become fully operational until after 2090. Polar Class 6 vessels achieve near year-round navigation by 2100 under SSP2-4.5, and full-year operation as early as 2048 under SSP5-8.5.