Interactions between China and Arctic oil and gas resources under the carbon neutrality goal: scenarios to 2060

Against the background of global warming, especially the “Arctic amplification”, there has been a tension between the availability and economics of Arctic oil and gas resources and the extreme environmentality stipulated by the carbon neutrality goal. The research object is the interactions between China and Arctic oil and gas resources under the carbon neutrality goal. And China’s carbon neutrality process is proposed to be divided into four periods: 2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2040–2050, 2050–2060. The study finds as follows. First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted the existing interdependence between Russia and Europe in energy. Meanwhile, China and India both have uninterrupted demand for Arctic oil and gas resources from Russia. All has led to a new narrative on global energy security. Second, the possibility of ice-free Arctic Ocean in summertime makes the expansion of the navigation period of the Arctic shipping lanes possible. It has both advantages and disadvantages for China in Arctic energy consumption. Third, as the proportion of clean energy increases in China’s final energy consumption structure, China’s total demand for Arctic oil and gas resources declines correspondingly. Hence, China plays an independent role in the co-opetition with the United States and Russia. Fourth, by 2060, the co-opetition relationship between China, the United States, and Russia will undergo almost fundamental changes in the Arctic region. Those changes will be reflected in China’s increasing influence in Arctic energy distribution. Compared to typical research articles solely focused on the energy, this study has obviously theoretical, practical and methodological values.